Document Type
Article
Publication Title
Northwestern University Law Review
Publication Date
2006
Volume
100
First Page
1141
Abstract
(Excerpt)
In ancient Greek mythology, oracles and seers could foretell the actions of gods and kings. With these predictions, ordinary citizens could glimpse the future actions of their rulers, and the recipients treasured those insights.
Such knowledge may be more than myth. This Article explores the power of the information market, an economic instrument that allows groups of participants to merge their collective knowledge to make predictions. Specifically, we discuss the application of information markets to predicting Supreme Court decisions. The implications are significant: Supreme Court rulings determine issues critical to American politics and business, ranging from the Fifth Amendment rights of property owners, to abortion and affirmative action, to claims of securities fraud. The ability to know a probable Supreme Court outcome in advance can potentially create monetary value for practitioners, provide guidance for lower courts, and perhaps even influence the Supreme Court itself.
Comments
Available at: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=927502